Costco
personalized product recommendation carousels based on member history, on the site and the app
Costco's personalized product recommendation carousels on costco.com and in its app generated more than $470 million in e-commerce sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and converted three times better than the site's usual rate in the third; in the fourth quarter, 10% of costco.com orders contained a personalized item, according to CFO Gary Millerchip on the earnings calls.
Key points
- Since late 2025, Costco has served personalized recommendation carousels on costco.com and in its app.
- Suggestions draw on the member's history, notably past searches, according to CEO Ron Vachris.
- More than $470M in sales via the carousels in Q2 of fiscal 2026, 3x conversion in Q3.
- In Q4, 10% of costco.com orders contain a personalized item, figures given on an earnings call.
Objective
Close the digital gap of a retailer whose e-commerce accounts for a small share of revenue, by making the site and the app more relevant to each member: more items in the online basket, more visits, and a stronger member relationship at a time when memberships taken online renew slightly less well than those taken in the warehouse.
The deployment
Costco began personalizing its site and app in the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 (September to November 2025). CEO Ron Vachris then presented new capabilities that offer members more relevant product recommendations based on their search history. The most visible format is the personalized product recommendation carousel, placed on costco.com and in the app. CFO Gary Millerchip reports its results quarter after quarter on the earnings calls. In the second quarter (call of March 5, 2026), the carousels generate more than $470 million in e-commerce sales. In the third quarter (call of May 28, 2026), they convert three times better than the site's usual conversion rate; Retail Dive reports that Millerchip puts their contribution at just under $500 million in digital sales, while the Motley Fool transcript of that passage carries an obvious amount error. In the fourth quarter (call of September 24, 2026), Costco widens the scope to product placements and emails: sales from personalization initiatives show triple-digit growth and 10% of costco.com orders contain a personalized item. Costco discloses neither the model, nor the vendor, nor the method used to measure these attributed sales, and does not itself call the carousels AI on its calls; it is the retail press (Retail Customer Experience) that describes them as AI-powered. Not to be confused with a result of this system: traffic from external AI search engines, which Costco says is growing at triple digits on the same call, comes from third-party assistants and not from Costco's personalization.
Results Proof A
The figures are stated by Costco's CFO in his prepared remarks on three consecutive earnings calls (Q2, Q3 and Q4 of fiscal 2026), cited here through the transcripts published by The Motley Fool, and picked up by Retail Dive and Digital Commerce 360. Earnings communication, several consistent sources; the AI label for the engine comes from the trade press, not from Costco.
How it works
Inferred typical approachThe internal detail is not public. Here is a proven approach that leads to the same result, to adapt to your stack.
The stack in detail
- plateforme Carrousels de recommandations personnalisees (Costco) Deployed on costco.com and the app. Costco discloses neither the model nor the vendor of the engine.
How it runs, concretely
For ops teams-
1Signal collection Platform
The site and the app record the member's searches and purchases, tied to their membership number.
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2Recommendation computation AI
The engine selects the products to push in the carousels based on this history.
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3Display Platform and e-commerce teams
The personalized carousels appear on costco.com and in the app; in Q4, the same logic feeds product placements and emails.
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4Attribution and quarterly review Finance and digital team
Costco tracks sales made through the carousels, their conversion against the site's usual rate and the share of orders containing a personalized item, then reports them to investors.
The logged-in member's history, in particular past searches. An unidentified visitor or a member with no online history gives almost nothing to work with, which limits the reach of the carousels for members who mostly buy in the warehouse.
How your customers perceive this type of use
Sourced studiesLe paradoxe est documente des deux cotes : 71% des consommateurs attendent des interactions personnalisees et 76% sont frustres quand elles manquent (McKinsey, 2021), mais 75% declarent ne pas acheter aupres d'organisations auxquelles ils ne confient pas leurs donnees (Cisco, 2024). La « creepy line » est localisee : messages recus quelques secondes apres une recherche et suivi de localisation sont les pratiques qui mettent le plus mal a l'aise (Periscope by McKinsey, 2019).
Acceptance conditions
- La confiance dans le traitement des donnees precede l'achat : 75% ne achetent pas sans elle (Cisco 2024)
- Un cadre legal protecteur rassure : 59% des consommateurs disent que des lois fortes sur la vie privee les rendent plus a l'aise pour partager des informations dans des applications IA (Cisco 2024)
- La personnalisation elle-meme est attendue quand elle est consentie : environ la moitie des consommateurs (US 55%, UK 52%) disent s'inscrire souvent ou parfois a des services personnalises (Periscope by McKinsey 2019)
Red lines
- Le message declenche quelques secondes apres une recherche ou un achat : deuxieme ou troisieme cause de malaise selon les pays (Periscope by McKinsey 2019)
- Le suivi de localisation percu comme de la surveillance : 40% de malaise en Allemagne et au Royaume-Uni (Periscope by McKinsey 2019)
- Le mesusage des donnees personnelles par l'IA, devenu la premiere inquietude des consommateurs, a 53% et en hausse (Qualtrics 2025)
Sources: McKinsey & Company 2021 · Periscope by McKinsey 2019 · Cisco 2024 · Qualtrics 2025
How to replicate
Inference, not sourcedData prerequisites
- customer identified at login, ideally by an account or membership number shared by the store and the site
- usable online search and purchase history per profile
- clean, well-attributed product catalog
- tracking able to attribute a sale to a carousel and compare its conversion with the site rate
Org prerequisites
- an e-commerce team that owns the carousel slots on the site and the app
- a sales attribution rule set before launch, so that the reported figure is defensible
- a merchandising decision on what the engine is allowed to push
Possible stack
- in-house recommendation engine or e-commerce personalization platform
- CDP or customer data warehouse linked to the account
- email tool able to reuse the same recommendations
The plan, step by step
- Step 1Tie online searches and purchases to a single customer identifier, and measure what share of traffic is logged in.Deliverable: Usable customer profile and size of the addressable audience.
- Step 2Launch a recommendation carousel on a priority slot, with a control group receiving no personalization.Deliverable: Carousel conversion read against the usual rate and against the control group.
- Step 3Extend to the other slots on the site and the app, then reuse the recommendations in emails and product placements.Deliverable: Multi-slot personalization with shared attribution.
- Step 4Track attributed sales, conversion and the share of orders containing a recommended item at each reporting cycle.Deliverable: Personalization dashboard reviewed by senior management.
First step: Place a first personalized carousel on a high-traffic page for logged-in customers, and measure its conversion against the site's usual rate before extending to other slots.
Sources
- S1 Costco (COST) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Established press archive pending
- S2 Costco (COST) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Established press archive pending
- S3 Costco (COST) Q3 2026 Earnings Transcript Established press archive pending
- S4 Costco's personalization effort drives $500M in digital sales Established press archive pending
- S5 Costco ecommerce sales growth tops 20% in Q1 Secondary archive pending
- S6 Costco CEO, CFO talk AI-powered online sales jump, tariff strategy Secondary archive pending
An error, newer info, a source?
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